A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
